Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stekler, H.O.

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4N4S0CC-3/2/9349654c1a7283f5f2a16c09f48f953f
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 237-248

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:237-248

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
  3. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  4. Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August.
  5. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
  6. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
  7. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper, National Institute of Economic Research 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
  8. William D. Nordhaus, 1985. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & De Gooijer, Jan G. & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Introduction to nonlinearities, business cycles, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 623-625.
  11. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  12. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Smyth, David J. & Ash, J. C. K., 1985. "Multiperiod forecasts and the variability of predicted and actual changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 141-143.
  14. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 931-956, December.
  15. Stekler, H O, 1975. "Why do Forecasters Underestimate?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 445-49, September.
  16. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  17. Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-58, August.
  18. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
  19. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 261-275.
  20. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  21. Neftci, Salih N. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 1991. "Properties and Stochastic nature of BEA's early estimates of GNP," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 231-239, August.
  22. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  23. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
  24. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," MPRA Paper 22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
  26. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  27. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
  28. Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48.
  30. Fintzen, David & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 309-323, July.
  31. Mozes, Haim A., 2003. "Accuracy, usefulness and the evaluation of analysts' forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 417-434.
  32. Paul Goodwin, 2005. "How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 8-12, June.
  33. Robert Goldfarb & H. O. Stekler & Joel David, 2005. "Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 517-542.
  34. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  36. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2001. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts and the Bank of England's fan charts," Working Paper Series 0083, European Central Bank.
  37. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
  38. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  39. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Economics Series Working Papers 3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  40. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  41. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
  42. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
  43. Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Some possible directions for future research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-3.
  44. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-99.
  45. Frederick Joutz & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Data revisions and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1011-1016.
  46. Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
  47. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
  48. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
  49. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
  50. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
  51. Heilemann, Ullrich, 2002. "Increasing the transparency of macroeconometric forecasts: a report from the trenches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 85-105.
  52. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
  53. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  54. Cho, Dong W., 2002. "Do revisions improve forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 107-115.
  55. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  56. Swidler, Steve & Ketcher, David, 1990. "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 65-76, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ager, Philipp & Kappler, Marcus & Osterloh, Steffen, 2007. "The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-058, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Naderi, Esmaeil & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Amiri, Ashkan, 2013. "Financial Time Series Forecasting by Developing a Hybrid Intelligent System," MPRA Paper 45615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
  4. António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CESNOVA-Research on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November.
  5. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
  6. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  7. Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2009. "Properties of expert adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-47.
  8. Franses, Philip Hans, 2008. "Merging models and experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-33.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:237-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.