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A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Papastamos

    (Eurobank EFG Property Services S.A)

  • George Matysiak

    (Master Management Group and Krakow University of Economics)

  • Simon Stevenson

    (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

Abstract

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2014-06
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