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The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market

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Author Info
Wheaton, William C
Torto, Raymond G
Evans, Peter
Abstract

This paper applies structural econometric methodology to estimating and forecasting the greater London office market. We assemble a time series covering the 1970-1995 period and estimate equations for net space absorption, movements in rents, and new building orders. Together with two identities, calculating the stock and vacancy, these form a complete model. We estimate a generally inelastic supply and demand relationship that yields a dynamically stable system. Without unanticipated economic shocks, the market is noncyclic. Therefore the building boom of the 1980s largely is delayed response to the huge growth in service jobs that occurred over that period. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 77-92
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:77-92

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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  1. Fuerst, Franz, 2006. "Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach," MPRA Paper 5262, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188. [Downloadable!]
  3. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "Asymmetric Space Market Adjustment in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-07, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Jensen-Butler, 2005. "A Model of Regional Housing Markets in England and Wales," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0508, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sofia Dermisi, 2005. "Industry location patterns in metropolitan area office markets - Central Business Districts versus suburbs," Urban/Regional 0509007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68. [Downloadable!]
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