Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts
AbstractThe evidence from several euro-area countries demonstrates the existence of a forecast bias in the budgetary process, which negatively affects fiscal performance. To remedy this bias, we suggest that forecasting should be assigned to an authority independent from the ministry of finance and the government, with the task of producing unbiased projections of growth and other variables crucial for the budgetary process.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 210.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
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independent forecasts; taxation; fiscal policy; forecast bias; forecasts; Jonung; Larch;
Other versions of this item:
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
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