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Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes

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Author Info
Rolf Strauch () (European Central Bank and ZEI)
Mark Hallerberg () (University of Pittsburgh)
Jürgen von Hagen () (CEPR, University of Bonn, ZEI, Indiana University)

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Abstract

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2004/42.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_42

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; forecast evaluation; budget processes; Stability and Growth Pact;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mark Hallerberg & Rolf Strauch, 2002. "On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 183-207, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Pablo Hernandez Cos & Matthias F. Mohr & Mika Tujula & Carine Bouthevillain & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Gerrit Van Den Dool, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 077, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Heinemann, Friedrich, 2005. "Planning or propaganda? : An evaluation of Germany?s medium-term budgetary planning," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-12, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Anthony Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/116, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Konrad Szelag, 2007. "Expected and actual impact of EMU on growth, public finances and structural reforms in the euro area," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 40, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bodo Herzog, 2005. "Why do bigger countries have more problems with the Stability and Growth Pact?," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 40, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
  6. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  7. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Franco, Daniele, 2005. "The stability pact pains : a forward-looking assessment of the reform debate," Discussion Paper 101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2008. "Fiscal policy in real time," Working Paper Series 919, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2006. "EMU fiscal indicators: a misleading compass?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 63-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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