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The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23- 0.32 pp. and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. Moreover, the public debt ratio increases when deflation is also associated with a period of economic recession. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices. Key Words : debt, deflation, local projection, impulse response functions, GMM, recessions, expansions

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  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp232016
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    3. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jesionek, Julia & Muggenthaler, Philip & Frutos, Mario Alloza & Avgousti, Aristoklis & Briodeau, Clémence & Brusbārde, Baiba & Caprioli, Francesc, 2023. "The effects of high inflation on public finances in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 332, European Central Bank.
    4. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    5. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    6. Karsten Staehr & Olegs Tkacevs & Katri Urke, 2023. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the Euro Area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    7. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI-2021-07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Oct 2021.
    8. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt And Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI05, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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