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Deflation and depression: is there an empirical link?

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Author Info
Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

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Abstract

Are deflation and depression empirically linked? No, concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates. Deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s. But in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years, there is virtually no evidence of such a link.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 331.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in American Economic Review> (Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, pp. 99-103)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:331

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Keywords: Deflation (Finance) ; Depressions;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ron Leung & Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "Deflation, Real Wages, and the International Great Depression: A Productivity Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 75, Econometric Society.
  3. V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Optimality of the Friedman Rule in Economies with Distorting Taxes," NBER Working Papers 4443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Carey, Kevin, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 853-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1998. "Zero nominal interest rates: why they're good and how to get them," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-10. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rolnick, Arthur J & Weber, Warren E, 1997. "Money, Inflation, and Output under Fiat and Commodity Standards," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1308-21, December.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  8. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2006. "Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link," Working Paper Series 2006-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Claudio Morana, 2004. "The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?," ICER Working Papers 29-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Preston J. Miller & Gary H. Stern, 2004. "Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
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