This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Deflation, Real Wages, and the International Great Depression: A Productivity Puzzle

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ron Leung
Harold L. Cole
Lee E. Ohanian

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The high real wage story is one of the leading hypotheses for how deflation caused the International Great Depression. The story is that world-wide deflation, combined with incomplete nominal wage adjustment, raised real wages in a number of countries, and these higher real wages reduced employment as firms moved up their labor demand curves. This paper studies the high real wage hypothesis in an international cross section of 17 countries between 1930-33 using dynamic, general equilibrium monetary models. We find that the high real wage story by itself does not account for output changes in the international cross section. The models make large errors predicting output in the international cross section, largely because the correlation between real wages and output in the models is -1, while this correlation is positive in the data. This means that the world-wide Depression was not just firms moving up their labor demand curves in response to high real wages. Instead, accounting for the Depression requires a shock that shifts labor demand curves differentially across countries. We add productivity shocks to the model as a candidate labor demand shifter. We find that the productivity shocks in the model are very similar to productivity changes in the data. We also find that productivity shocks account for about 2/3 of output changes, while monetary shocks account for about 1/3 of output changes

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 75.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:75

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Great Depression; monetary shocks; productivity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?," NBER Working Papers 10268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The great depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Working Paper Series 326, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2002. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust: Some Macroeconomics for Population Economics," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 1, Economie d'Avant Garde. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luca, PENSIEROSO, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models of the Great Depression : a Critical Survey," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005005, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Still Fettered After All These Years," NBER Working Papers 9276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ester Faia & Alessia Campolmi, 2005. "Inflation Differentials and Different Labor Market Institutions in the EMU," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Want to help out with this project? Look for volunteer opportunities.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.