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Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?

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  • Andrew Atkeson
  • Patrick Kehoe

Abstract

Are deflation and depression empirically linked? No, concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates. Deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s. But in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years, there is virtually no evidence of such a link.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10268.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10268

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  1. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Staff Report 158, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Kevin Carey, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 5439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1998. "Zero nominal interest rates: why they're good and how to get them," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-10.
  5. Rolnick, Arthur J & Weber, Warren E, 1997. "Money, Inflation, and Output under Fiat and Commodity Standards," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1308-21, December.
  6. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Ron Leung & Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "Deflation, Real Wages, and the International Great Depression: A Productivity Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 75, Econometric Society.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. El Euro y la divergencia de productividades
    by Andrés Neumeyer in Foco Económico on 2011-10-16 12:00:00
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Cited by:
  1. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  2. Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
  3. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 2004.
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guerrero, Federico & Parker, Elliott, 2006. "Deflation and recession: Finding the empirical link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 12-17, October.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2006. "Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link," Working Paper Series 2006-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  8. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
  9. Beckworth, David, 2007. "The postbellum deflation and its lessons for today," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-214, August.
  10. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  11. Preston J. Miller & Gary H. Stern, 2004. "Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 2-9.

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