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Deflation and Depression: Is There an Empirical Link?

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  • Andrew Atkeson
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

Are deflation and depression empirically linked? No, concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates. Deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s. But in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years, there is virtually no evidence of such a link.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/0002828041301588
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 99-103

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:2:p:99-103

Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828041301588
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References

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  1. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
  2. Ron Leung & Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "Deflation, Real Wages, and the International Great Depression: A Productivity Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 75, Econometric Society.
  3. Rolnick, Arthur J & Weber, Warren E, 1997. "Money, Inflation, and Output under Fiat and Commodity Standards," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1308-21, December.
  4. Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1998. "Zero nominal interest rates: why they're good and how to get them," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-10.
  5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
  6. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Kevin Carey, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 5439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. El Euro y la divergencia de productividades
    by Andrés Neumeyer in Foco Económico on 2011-10-16 12:00:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
  2. Preston J. Miller & Gary H. Stern, 2004. "Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Dec, pages 2-9.
  3. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2006. "Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link," Working Paper Series 2006-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Guerrero, Federico & Parker, Elliott, 2006. "Deflation and recession: Finding the empirical link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 12-17, October.
  6. Beckworth, David, 2007. "The postbellum deflation and its lessons for today," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-214, August.
  7. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  8. Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
  9. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  10. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  11. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 2004.

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