Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Fiscal Consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Consolidations

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ray Barrell
  • Dawn Holland
  • Ian Hurst
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper looks at various aspects of fiscal consolidation in 18 OECD economies. The prospects for fiscal consolidation depend upon the problems the country may face with its debt stock, the political will to deal with these problems and on the costs of consolidation. The analysis is based on a series of simulations using the National Institute Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. The properties of the NiGEM model are discussed first. Although the model is estimated it has a strong role for expectations and can be run under different modes of expectations formation. This allows a decomposition of the factors that might affect the results. Temporary and permanent shifts in fiscal policy are assessed as well as the potential impact of fiscal consolidation plans under different monetary and fiscal feedback rules and different modes of expectations formation. If fiscal policy is expected to be tightened in the future, then long rates will fall now, and perhaps even induce a short-term expansion of output. Expansionary fiscal contractions of this sort are rare, however, and none are anticipated with the programmes that are investigated. Consolidation budgétaire : Partie 2. Multiplicateurs budgétaires et assainissement des finances publiques Ce document examine divers aspects de l’assainissement des finances publiques dans 18 pays de l’OCDE. Le potentiel de consolidation budgétaire dépend du montant de la dette d’un pays et des problèmes qui peuvent en résulter, de la volonté politique de traiter ces problèmes et des coûts du redressement. L’analyse s’appuie sur un ensemble de simulations fondées sur le modèle économétrique mondial de l'Institut de recherche économique et sociale du Royaume-Uni (NiGEM). Les auteurs examinent en premier lieu les caractéristiques du modèle NiGEM. Même si ce modèle procède par estimation, il conditionne fortement les anticipations et peut être appliqué à différents modes de formation des anticipations. Cela permet de décomposer les facteurs susceptibles d’influer sur les résultats. Les auteurs évaluent ensuite les modifications temporaires et permanentes de la politique budgétaire, ainsi que l’impact potentiel des plans de redressement budgétaire selon différentes règles de rétroaction budgétaire et monétaire et différents modes de formation des anticipations. Si l’on s’attend à un durcissement de la politique budgétaire à l’avenir, les taux longs baisseront immédiatement, ce qui pourrait même induire une expansion à court terme de la production. Néanmoins, les contractions budgétaires expansionnistes de ce type sont exceptionnellement rares, et les programmes étudiés n’en prévoient aucune.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k9fdf6bs78r-en
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 933.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 22 Feb 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:933-en

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
    Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
    Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.oecd.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: large scale structural macro models; fiscal multipliers; rational expectations; budget consolidation in the OECD; modèles macroéconomiques structurels à grande échelle; multiplicateurs budgétaires; anticipations rationnelles; redressement budgétaire dans l’OCDE;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Anti-Austerity Policy: Independence or Devolution?
      by Brian Ashcroft in Scottish Economy Watch on 2012-07-02 13:41:38

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:933-en

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.