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Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009, to think about fiscal pressures on US inflation, and what sequence of events might surround such an inflation. I emphasize that a fiscal inflation can come well before large deficits or monetization are realized, and is likely to come with stagnation rather than a boom.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16087.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16087

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References

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  1. Antje Berndt & Hanno Lustig & Şevin Yeltekin, 2012. "How Does the US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 69-104, January.
  2. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CRSP working papers 478, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International financial adjustment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Piergallini, Alessandro & Rodano, Giorgio, 2009. "Public Debt, Distortionary Taxation, and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 15348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
  8. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
  9. Ashcraft, Adam & Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2010. "Two Monetary Tools: Interest Rates and Haircuts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  12. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  13. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "The failure mechanics of dealer banks," BIS Working Papers 301, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "The Failure Mechanics of Dealer Banks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
  15. Gary B. Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," NBER Working Papers 15223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
  17. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2011. "Inflation and the fiscal limit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 31-47, January.
  2. Piergallini Alessandro & Rodano Giorgio, 2012. "Public Debt, Distortionary Taxation, and Monetary Policy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 225-248.
  3. Albrecht Ritschl, 2012. "Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1149, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, 03.
  5. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2012. "Pushing the Limit? Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 033, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  6. Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2011. "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," CIS Discussion paper series 517, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  7. Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2012. "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," CIS Discussion paper series 537, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  8. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Fiscal Limits with No-Default," Working Papers WP2012/6, University of Haifa, Department of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2012.

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