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Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

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  • Coenraad N. Teulings
  • Nick Zubanov

Abstract

There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to misspecification of the underlying data generation process. Direct estimation of IRFs by a methodology similar to Jorda's (2005) local projection method is robust to misspecifications of the data generation process but yields biased estimates when country fixed effects are added. We propose a simple method to deal with this bias, which we apply to panel data from 99 countries for the period 1974-2001. Our estimates suggest that an average banking crisis leads to an output loss of around 10 percent with little sign of recovery. GDP losses from banking crises are more severe for African countries and economies in transition.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3027.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3027

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Keywords: banking crisis; impulse response; panel data;

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  1. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, 05.
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0508008, EconWPA.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  5. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  6. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  8. Cai, Xiaoming & Den Haan, Wouter, 2009. "Predicting recoveries and the importance of using enough information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7508, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
  10. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 647-659, May.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The growth problem
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2011-08-07 11:01:20
  2. Another case for plan B
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2011-07-27 13:31:10
  3. Recession & work ethics
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2013-06-18 13:27:00
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Cited by:
  1. Torben M. Andersen & Jonas Maibom & Michael Svarer & Allan Sørensen, 2013. "Do Business Cycles Have Long-Term Impact for Particular Cohorts?," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2013-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2010. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 801, OECD Publishing.
  3. Adam Elbourne & Coen Teulings, 2011. "The potential of a small model," CPB Discussion Paper 193, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," NBER Working Papers 17621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "The Effect of Episodes of Large Capital Inflows on Domestic Credit," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 864, OECD Publishing.
  6. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
  7. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2010. "Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables," Post-Print halshs-00491089, HAL.
  8. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  9. Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E. & Furceri, Davide & Guillaume, Dominique, 2013. "Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1202-1219.
  10. Davide Furceri & Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo & Dominique M. Guillaume, 2012. "Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment," IMF Working Papers 12/65, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval, 2012. "How quickly does structural reform pay off? An empirical analysis of the short-term effects of unemployment benefit reform," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, December.

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