Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses
AbstractThere is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to misspecification of the underlying data generation process. Direct estimation of IRFs by a methodology similar to Jorda's (2005) local projection method is robust to misspecifications of the data generation process but yields biased estimates when country fixed effects are added. We propose a simple method to deal with this bias, which we apply to panel data from 99 countries for the period 1974-2001. Our estimates suggest that an average banking crisis leads to an output loss of around 10 percent with little sign of recovery. GDP losses from banking crises are more severe for African countries and economies in transition.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3027.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
banking crisis; impulse response; panel data;
Other versions of this item:
- Teulings, Coen N & Zubanov, Nick, 2010. "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 7800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coen Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2011. "Is economic recovery a myth? Robust estimation of impulse responses," CPB Discussion Paper 131, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
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by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2011-08-07 11:01:20
- Another case for plan B
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2011-07-27 13:31:10
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