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Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley, CEPR & NBER)
Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis & NBER)
)

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Abstract

What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalued before resumption were treated more favorably, and markets scrutinized other signals. Public debt and British Empire membership were important determinants of spreads after World War One, but not before.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0303001.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 25 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0303001

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record," NBER Working Papers 6201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2001. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," Working Papers 0119, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 0, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld., 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-094, University of California at Berkeley.
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  11. Hugh Rockoff & Michael D. Bordo, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval"," Departmental Working Papers 199528, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862?1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 697-717, September. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Departmental Working Papers 199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Prasanna Gai & Kang-yong Tan, 2004. "Good Housekeeping? Reputation, Fixed Exchange Rates, and the 'Original Sin' Problem," Working Papers 082004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Accominotti, Olivier & Flandreau, Marc & Rezzik, Riad & Zumer, Frédéric, 2008. "Black Man’s Burden: Measured Philanthropy in the British Empire, 1880-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 6811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kris James Mitchener & Masato Shizume & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Why did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 228, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2005. "The Empire Effect: Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880-1913," Economic History 0509002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Filippo Cesarano & Giulio Cifarelli & Gianni Toniolo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy on the Periphery: The Italian Lira 1883-1911," Working Papers Series wp2009_11.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael D Bordo & Christopher M Meissner & Marc D Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," WEF Working Papers 0010, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies: How Much is thePrivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," WEF Working Papers 0002, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Wolf, Nikolaus, 2008. "Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s Exit from Gold, January 1928- December 1936," CEPR Discussion Papers 6685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," WEF Working Papers 0001, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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