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Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data

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Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld.

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Abstract

This paper revises pre-World War II current account data for thirteen countries by treating gold flows on a consistent basis. The standard historical data sources often fail to distinguish between monetary gold exports, which are capital-account credits, and nonmonetary gold exports, which are current-account credits. The paper also adjusts historical investment data to account for changes in inventories. The revised data are used to construct estimates of saving and investment over the period from 1850 to 1945. Our methodology for removing monetary gold flows from the current account leads naturally to a gold-standard version of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis on capital mobility. The regression results are in broad agreement with those of Eichengreen, who found a significantly positive cross-sectional correlation between saving and investment even during some periods when the gold standard prevailed. Despite reaching broadly similar conclusions, we estimate correlations between saving and investment that are somewhat lower and less significant than those Eichengreen found. In particular, we find that in comparison to other interwar subsamples, the saving-investment correlation is markedly low during the fleeting years of a revived world gold standard, 1925-1930.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers with number C97-094.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c97-094

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  2. K. H. O'Rourke, 2001. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," CEG Working Papers 20015, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 2003. "Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," CEPR Discussion Papers 3688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2001. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Guillermo J. Vuletin, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Fiscal Performance. Do Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes Generate More Discipline Than Flexible Ones?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 474, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales. [Downloadable!]
  7. Moritz Schularick & Thomas M. Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," Economics working paper series 06/46, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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