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Investment-Saving Comovement under Endogenous Fiscal Policy

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  • Daniel Levy

    (Bar-Ilan University)

Abstract

I expand Feldstein’s (1983) model by including flexible exchange rate and by introducing endogenous fiscal policy. Using this model, I demonstrate how a positive investment-saving correlation can arise in a world with endogenous fiscal policy. I show that this correlation does not depend on capital mobility and therefore is compatible with any degree of capital mobility. This implies that the observed investment- saving comovement is not necessarily due to imperfect capital mobility. The model has a testable implication: it predicts a lack of Granger causality from private saving to private investment. Empirical examination of this prediction indicates that U.S. time series data is compatible with the hypothesis of endogenous fiscal policy during a flexible exchange rate period, but not during a fixed exchange rate period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0505008.

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Date of creation: 15 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0505008

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Keywords: Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Saving; Capital Mobility; Endogenous Fiscal Policy;

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References

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  2. Ramon Moreno, 1988. "Saving, investment, and the U.S. external balance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 3-17.
  3. Daniel Levy, 2003. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Levy, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," International Finance 0402002, EconWPA, revised 12 May 2005.
  2. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "L’Intégration Européenne et la Soutenabilité Externe de l’Union Européenne: une application de la thèse de Feldstein-Horioka," GEMF Working Papers 2007-05, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  3. Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.
  4. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  5. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
  6. Eiriksson, Agust A., 2011. "The saving-investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 40-47, January.
  7. Jos Jansen, W, 1996. "Estimating saving-investment correlations: evidence for OECD countries based on an error correction model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 749-781, October.
  8. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "La these de Feldstein-Horioka: une mesure de la mobilité internationale du capital," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(1), pages 53-67, March.
  9. W. Jansen, 1998. "Interpreting Saving-Investment Correlations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 207-219, July.

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