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Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy

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Author Info
Daniel Levy

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Abstract

I expand Feldstein's (1983) model by including flexible exchange rate and by introducing endogenous fiscal policy. Using this model, I demonstrate how a positive investment-saving correlation can arise in a world with endogenous fiscal policy. I show that this correlation does not depend on capital mobility and therefore is compatible with any degree of capital mobility. This implies that the observed investment-saving comovement is not necessarily due to imperfect capital mobility. The model has a testable implication: it predicts a lack of Granger causality from private saving to private investment. Empirical examination of this prediction indicates that U.S. time series data is compatible with the hypothesis of endogenous fiscal policy during a flexible exchange rate period, but not during a fixed exchange rate period. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01000083
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 237-254
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:6:y:1995:i:3:p:237-254

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Related research
Keywords: investment; saving; capital mobility; endogenous fiscal policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glenn Otto & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1989. "National Savings and Domestic Investment in the Long Run: Some Time Series Evidence for the U.S. and Canada," Working Papers 754, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. David Y. Wong, 1988. "What do saving - investment relationships tell us about capital mobility?," Working Papers 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Argimon, Isabel & Roldan, JoseMaria, 1994. "Saving, investment and international capital mobility in EC countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 59-67, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Working Papers 0947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:fth:harver:1463 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Ramon Moreno, 1988. "Saving, investment, and the U.S. external balance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 349-386 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  15. Levy, D., 1990. "Investment-Saving Comovement, Capital Mobility, And Fiscal Policy," Papers 90-91-04, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  16. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gulley, O. David, 1992. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? : Another look at the data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 55-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1992. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Working Papers 3164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Daniel Levy, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," International Finance 0402002, EconWPA, revised 12 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  22. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Podivinsky, Jan M., 1998. "Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-9, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Levy, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," International Finance 0402002, EconWPA, revised 12 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  2. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel Levy, 2005. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," International Finance 0505006, EconWPA, revised 16 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. W. Jansen, 1998. "Interpreting Saving-Investment Correlations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 207-219, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "L’Intégration Européenne et la Soutenabilité Externe de l’Union Européenne: une application de la thèse de Feldstein-Horioka," GEMF Working Papers 2007-05, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
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