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Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?

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  • Daniel Levy

    () (Bar-Ilan University and Emory University)

Abstract

Using the framework of a dynamic intertemporal optimization model of an open economy, it is shown that the long-run investment-saving correlation follows directly from the economy’s dynamic budget constraint and this does not depend on the degree of international capital mobility. Therefore, unless the budget constraint is violated, the time series of investment and saving should be cointegrated, and this should be true for any degree of capital mobility. Using an improved econometric technique, which encompasses the tests used by previous authors and avoids some of the pitfalls associated with their tests, I show that their conflicting findings can be explained by a simple but important, omitted variables problem. Using annual and quarterly post-war U.S. data, I find that investment and saving are cointegrated in levels as well as in rates, regardless of the time period considered, as predicted by the model.

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File URL: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec/wp/2-03/2-03.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University in its series Working Papers with number 2003-02.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2003-02

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Keywords: Capital Mobility; Investment-Saving Correlation; Dynamic Budget Constraint; Integration and Cointegration; Omitted Variables.;

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References

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  1. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Working Papers 0947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Barro, R.J. & Mankiw, N.G. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1992. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," Papers 655, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  4. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
  5. Sachsida, Adolfo & Caetano, Marcelo Abi-Ramia, 2000. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 85-88, July.
  6. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
  9. repec:fth:galeco:49 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  11. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
  12. Glenn Otto & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1989. "National Savings and Domestic Investment in the Long Run: Some Time Series Evidence for the U.S. and Canada," Working Papers 754, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Levy, D., 1990. "Investment-Saving Comovement, Capital Mobility, And Fiscal Policy," Papers 90-91-04, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  14. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-70, September.
  15. Tsoukis, C. & Alyousha, A., 2000. "A Re-Examination of Saving - Investment Relationships: Cointegration, Causality and International Capital Mobility," Papers 271, Universite de Nantes - Economie Internationale et de l'Entreprise.
  16. Helen Popper, 1990. "International capital mobility: direct evidence from long-term currency swaps," International Finance Discussion Papers 386, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  18. B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, October.
  19. Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.
  20. Stilianos Fountas & Christopher Tsoukis, 2000. "Twin Deficits, Real Interest Rates and International Capital Mobility," Working Papers 0049, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrew T. Young & Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Heterogeneous Convergence," Working Paper Series 18_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA.
  3. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
  4. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Emory Economics 0306, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  5. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  6. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Djurić, Sandra, 2010. "Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries," MPRA Paper 24149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.

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