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Current Account and Budget Deficits in an Intertemporal Model of Consumption and Taxation Smoothing. A Solution to the "Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle"?

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Nouriel Roubini

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Abstract

This paper presents an infinite horizon model of consumption and taxation " smoothing" that implies a simple relation between current accounts, budget deficits, investment rates and transitory output shocks. It is argued that such a model could explain the "Feldstein-Horioka puzzle" of the apparent lack of international capital mobility. Traditional regressions of the savings rate on the investment rate, as performed in the literature, are shown to be incorrect tests of the hypothesis of capital mobility because they do not control for the independent role of budget deficits and temporary output shocks in the current account and savings equations. Empirical tests of the model for a sample of 18 OECD countries present good evidence that international capital markets are widely integrated and that the "Feldstein-Horioka puzzle" might be explained by the important role of fiscal deficits in the determination of the current account and the saving behavior.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2773.

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Date of creation: Nov 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2773

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  1. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "The current account and the optimal government debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 215-224, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Working Papers 0947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bruno, Michael, 1976. "The Two-Sector Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 566-77, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 2007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Willem H. Buiter, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," NBER Working Papers 0352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alan C. Stockman & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1987. "Capital Flows, Investment, and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Anderson, James E. & Young, Leslie, 1992. "Optimal taxation and debt in an open economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 27-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Aschauer, David Alan, 1988. "The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 41-62, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sun Bae Kim, 1993. "Do capital controls affect the response of investment to saving? evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 23-39. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment: Some New Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kyoji Fukao & Koichi Hamada, 1990. "International Trade and Investment under Different Rates of Time Preferences," NBER Working Papers 3457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Aloi, Marta & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2006. "National Labour Markets, International Factor Mobility and Macroeconomic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jane Marrinan & Eva Ventura, 1995. "Efectos del gasto publico sobre el ahorro y la inversión en una economía abierta," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(3), pages 349-370, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michel Normandin, 1996. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Macroeconomics 9607001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Aggregate Implications of Credit Market Imperfections," NBER Working Papers 13209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michel Normandin, 2006. "Fiscal Policies, External Deficits, and Budget Deficits," Cahiers de recherche 0632, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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