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Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC

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Author Info
Artis, Michael J
Marcellino, Massimiliano

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Abstract

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2206.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2206

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal forecasting; forecast encompassing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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