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Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC

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Author Info
Artis, M.
Marcellino, M.

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Abstract

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecat pooling.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number eco99/22.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco99/22

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Related research
Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS ; FORECASTS ; DEFICIT;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.


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