We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecat pooling.
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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number
eco99/22.
Length: 31 pages Date of creation: 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco99/22
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
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