Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC
AbstractWe analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecat pooling.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number eco99/22.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
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ECONOMIC MODELS ; FORECASTS ; DEFICIT;
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC," CEPR Discussion Papers 2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
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