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Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC

Author

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  • MICHAEL ARTIS
  • MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO

Abstract

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 20-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:4:y:2001:i:1:p:s20-s36
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    Keywords

    Fiscal forecasting; Forecast comparison; Loss function.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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