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Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents

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  • William C. Wheaton
  • Raymond G. Torto
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    Abstract

    This research confirms the existence of a strong vacancy rental adjustment mechanism in the market for office space, such as has been found in housing markets. Using national time-series data, we find that real office rents drop approximately 2% annually, for every percentage point of "excess vacancy" in the market. We also find that the definition of "excess vacancy" has been trending upward over time. Using a recent vacancy forecast suggests that office income streams seem likely to decline in both real and nominal dollars over the next few years. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00466
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 16 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 430-436

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:16:y:1988:i:4:p:430-436

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    Cited by:
    1. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.
    2. Patric Hendershott & Edward J. Kane, 1992. "Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?," NBER Working Papers 4128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Discussion Papers 00004, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    4. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    5. Paul Gallimore & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-11, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    6. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
    7. Steven Laposa & Colin Lizieri, 2005. "Real Estate Capital Flows and Transitional Economies," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-12, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    8. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    9. van Ommeren, Jos N. & van der Straaten, J. Willemijn, 2008. "The effect of search imperfections on commuting behaviour: Evidence from employed and self-employed workers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 127-147, March.
    10. Honglin Wang & Chu Zhang & Weihang Dai, 2013. "Rental Adjustment and Housing Prices: Evidence from Hong Kong's Residential Property Market," Working Papers 012013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 609-632, May.
    12. V. Öven & Dilek Pekdemir, 2006. "Office Rent Determinants Utilising Factor Analysis—A Case Study for İstanbul," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 51-73, August.
    13. Maria Ibanez & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2013. "Commercial Property Rent Dynamics in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: An Examination of Office, Industrial, Flex and Retail Space," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 232-259, February.
    14. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Peter Chinloy & Zhonghua Wu, 2013. "The Inventory-Sales Ratio and Homebuilder Return Predictability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 397-423, April.
    16. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
    17. Frederic Laurin & John-John D'Argensio & Thea Goginashvili, 2010. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," Working Papers 10-001, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.

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