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Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets

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    Abstract

    This study presents the Real Estate Econometric Forecast Model (REEFM), a pooled recursive system that integrates real estate’s space and capital markets. The REEFM is empirically estimated using data from fifty-one metropolitan office markets over the years 1985–96. The core of the REEFM consists of six stochastic equations for each property type. These six equations predict occupancy, real rents, capitalization rates, market value per square foot, net change in stock and real construction costs. The model also produces synthetic investment return series called Implied Market Returns that can be used to guide investment acquisition activity and assess the representativeness of other investment returns.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n03/v18p503.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 503-519

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:3:1999:p:503-519

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    2. Patric H. Hendershott & David C. Ling, 1985. "Prospective Changes in Tax Law and the Value of Depreciable Real Estate," NBER Working Papers 1352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
    4. Graff, Richard A & Young, Michael S, 1996. "Real Estate Return Correlations: Real-World Limitations on Relationships Inferred from NCREIF Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 121-42, September.
    5. Smith, Lawrence B, 1974. "A Note on the Price Adjustment Mechanism for Rental Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 478-81, June.
    6. Geltner, David & Mei, Jianping, 1995. "The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 119-35, September.
    7. John L. Glascock & Shirin Jahanian & C. F. Sirmans, 1990. "An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Some Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 105-119.
    8. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198.
    9. David Guilkey & Mike Miles & Rebel Cole, 1989. "The Motivation for Institutional Real Estate Sales and Implications for Asset Class Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 70-86.
    10. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458.
    11. Stuart A. Gabriel & Frank E. Nothaft, 1988. "Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 419-429.
    12. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fuerst, Franz, 2006. "Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach," MPRA Paper 5262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Investor Rationality: Evidence from U.K. Property Capitalization Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 299-322, 06.
    3. Franz Fuerst, 2004. "Forecasting the Manhattan office market with a simultaneous equation model," Urban/Regional 0410006, EconWPA.

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