Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process
AbstractRental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the United States, models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the United Kingdom, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the estimation. The recent papers of Hendershott (1996) and Hendershott, Lizieri and Matysiak (HLM 1999) fall into the former category. We reestimate these equations using alternative formulations and present evidence that changes in real interest rates were not capitalized into Sydney and London real land prices. We then derive a model incorporating supply and demand factors within an Error Correction framework and show how the U.S. and U.K. traditions are special cases of this more general formulation. We next estimate a two-equation variant with a separate vacancy rate equation using data from the City of London office market. This model allows calculation of the underlying price (rent) and income (employment) elasticities and explains the data marginally better than the HLM model. Importantly, our model passes standard modern econometric requirements for unit roots and cointegration. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
- Franz Fuerst & Anna-Maija Grandy, . ""Oft Expectation Fails": A Time-Series Analysis of Construction Starts in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2010-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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