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National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets

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  • Richard Voith
  • Theodore Crone

Abstract

In this paper, we develop and estimate a model that decomposes the variance in office vacancy rates into market‐specific, time‐specific, and random components. The results indicate significant differences in natural vacancy rates across markets. We also find some persistence in deviations from these natural vacancy rates. The analysis is applied to both central business district (CBD) and suburban office markets. We find that natural vacancy rates differ across CBD markets and across suburban markets. Further, the persistence of disequilibrium in one CBD market seems to differ significantly from that in another. This is not shown to be true for suburban markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:16:y:1988:i:4:p:437-458
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00467
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    Cited by:

    1. Leon G. Shilton & Janet K. Tandy, 1993. "The Information Precision of CBD Office Vacancy Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 421-444.
    2. Li-Min Hsueh & Hsi-Peng Tseng & Chang-Chiang Hsieh, 2007. "Relationship Between the Housing Vacancy Rate, Housing Price, and the Moving Rate at the Township Level in Taiwan, in 1990 and 2000," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 119-150.
    3. Mark Gallagher & Asieh Mansour, 2000. "An Analysis of Hotel Real Estate Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 133-164.
    4. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2002. "Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 165-183.
    6. Raymond Y. C. Tse & James R. Webb, 2003. "Models of Office Market Dynamics," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 71-89, January.
    7. Jacques Gordon & Paige MosbaughTodd Canter & Todd Canter, 1996. "Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 469-501.
    8. Colin Jones & Allison Orr, 1999. "Local Commercial and Industrial Rental Trends and Property Market Constraints," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(2), pages 223-237, February.
    9. John L. Glascock & Minbo Kim & C.F. Sirmans, 1993. "An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Parameter Constancy and Unobservable Variables," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(4), pages 625-638.
    10. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    11. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
    12. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    13. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    14. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Office Rent Processes: The Case of U.S. Metropolitan Markets," Working Paper 8664, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    15. N. B. Udoekanem & J. I. Ighalo, 2016. "An assessment of the relationship between office rent and vacancy rate in Abuja, Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 77-83, March.
    16. D M Hanink, 1997. "The Integration of Intrametropolitan Office Markets," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(3), pages 391-404, March.
    17. Jos Janssen & Bert Kruijt & Barrie Needham, 1994. "The Honeycomb Cycle in Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 237-252.
    18. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.
    20. John L. Glascock & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 1993. "Owner Tenancy as Credible Commitment under Uncertainty," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 69-82, March.
    21. Mark J. Eppli & Steve P. Laposa, 1997. "A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 321-338.
    22. Jean-Jacques Grannelle, 1996. "Le marché des bureaux. Une revue des modèles économétriques," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 59(1), pages 167-211.
    23. John Krainer, 2001. "Natural vacancy rates in commercial real estate markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.

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