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National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets

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  • Richard Voith
  • Theodore Crone

Abstract

In this paper, we develop and estimate a model that decomposes the variance in office vacancy rates into market-specific, time-specific, and random components. The results indicate significant differences in natural vacancy rates across markets. We also find some persistence in deviations from these natural vacancy rates. The analysis is applied to both central business district (CBD) and suburban office markets. We find that natural vacancy rates differ across CBD markets and across suburban markets. Further, the persistence of disequilibrium in one CBD market seems to differ significantly from that in another. This is not shown to be true for suburban markets. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (1988)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 437-458

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:16:y:1988:i:4:p:437-458

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Cited by:
  1. Li-Min Hsueh & Hsi-Peng Tseng & Chang-Chiang Hsieh, 2007. "Relationship Between the Housing Vacancy Rate, Housing Price, and the Moving Rate at the Township Level in Taiwan, in 1990 and 2000," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(1), pages 119-150.
  2. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  3. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
  4. Leon G. Shilton & Janet K. Tandy, 1993. "The Information Precision of CBD Office Vacancy Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 421-444.
  5. John Krainer, 2001. "Natural vacancy rates in commercial real estate markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
  6. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
  7. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
  8. Mark Gallagher & Asieh Mansour, 2000. "An Analysis of Hotel Real Estate Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 133-164.
  9. John L. Glascock & Minbo Kim & C.F. Sirmans, 1993. "An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Parameter Constancy and Unobservable Variables," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(4), pages 625-638.
  10. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mark J. Eppli & Steve P. Laposa, 1997. "A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 321-338.
  12. Jacques Gordon & Paige MosbaughTodd Canter & Todd Canter, 1996. "Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 469-501.
  13. Jos Janssen & Bert Kruijt & Barrie Needham, 1994. "The Honeycomb Cycle in Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 237-252.

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