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The Workings of the London Office Market

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Colin M. Lizieri
  • George A. Matysiak

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London office market over 1977-1996. The model tracks the market dynamically, and the severe 1985-1996 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the movement of real interest rates. The latter directly affects both construction and real rent levels. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 365-387

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:27:y:1999:i:2:p:365-387

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gunnelin, Åke & Söderberg, Bo, 2002. "Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm," SIFR Research Report Series 6, Institute for Financial Research.
  2. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
  3. Sofia Dermisi, 2005. "Industry location patterns in metropolitan area office markets - Central Business Districts versus suburbs," Urban/Regional 0509007, EconWPA.
  4. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2013. "The London Commercial Property Price Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 588-616, November.
  5. Colin Lizieri, 2008. "International Financial Centres, Office Market Rents and Volatility," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  6. Cheshire, Paul & Hilber, Christian A. L., 2007. "Office Space Supply Restrictions in Britain: The Political Economy of Market Revenge," MPRA Paper 5435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2003. "Investor Rationality: Evidence from UK Property Capitalization Rates," NBER Working Papers 9894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
  9. Cheong, Chee Seng & Gerlach, Richard & Stevenson, Simon & Wilson, Patrick J. & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2009. "Equity and fixed income markets as drivers of securitised real estate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 103-111, April.
  10. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.
  11. Peter Englund & Ake Gunnelin & Patric H. Hendershott & Bo Soderberg, 2005. "Adjustment in Property Space Markets: Estimates from the Stockholm Office Market," NBER Working Papers 11345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss, 2012. "Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 570-590, May.
  13. Ambrose, Brent W & Hendershott, Patric H & Klosek, Malgorzata, 2002. "Pricing Upward-Only Adjusting Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 33-49, July.
  14. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
  15. Franz Fuerst, 2004. "Forecasting the Manhattan office market with a simultaneous equation model," Urban/Regional 0410006, EconWPA.
  16. Fuerst, Franz, 2006. "Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach," MPRA Paper 5262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, March.
  18. Franz Fuerst & Anna-Maija Grandy, . ""Oft Expectation Fails": A Time-Series Analysis of Construction Starts in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2010-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  19. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. John Whitley & Richard Windram, 2003. "A quantitative framework for commercial property and its relationship to the analysis of the financial stability of the corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 207, Bank of England.

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