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Le marché des bureaux. Une revue des modèles économétriques

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  • Jean-Jacques Grannelle
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    Abstract

    [eng] As it is the case with any real estate sector, offices are durable goods and it is possible to separate the market for office use from the market for office assets. However the American analytical and forecasting models which have been developed in this field of research, essentially take into account the market for office use. These models may be interurban, urban or intraurban. Generally they incorporate several accounting identities including market absorption, the current vacancy rate and the stock of space. The behavioural relationships are usually represented by a demand equation, a supply equation and sometimes a rental adjustment equation. Desired demand depends on employment variables and real rents. On the supply side, desired construction depends on the stock of space, real rents and market absorption. As for the rental adjustment equation it highlights an inverse relationship between rent changes and vacancy rate. The models clearly point out the cyclical features of office markets which greatly depend on gradual rent vacancy adjustment. Inversely the speculative character of office markets which is particularly evident in the latest real estate cycle, is not taken into account by the models yet, because they usually ignore the markets for office assets. Finally models associating the markets for office use and those for office assets should be provided, as clearly shown by a simple comparative static analysis. [fre] Comme tout bien immobilier le bureau est un bien durable et l'on peut dissocier le marché des services rendus par le bien et le marché des actifs. Les modèles américains qui ont été élaborés dans ce domaine pour l'analyse et la prévision retiennent toutefois pour l'essentiel le marché des services. Ils sont construits selon les cas au niveau interurbain, urbain ou intraurbain. En général ils reposent d'abord sur des identités comptables explicitant respectivement l'absorption du marché, le taux de vacance courant et l'état du parc. Les relations de comportement prennent en compte usuellement une équation de demande, une équation d'offre et, le cas échéant, une équation d'ajustement du loyer. La demande désirée dépend des variables d'emploi et du loyer réel. La construction désirée dépend de l'état du parc, du loyer réel et de l'absorption du marché. L'équation d'ajustement du loyer, de son côté, met en évidence la relation inverse entre variations du loyer et taux de vacance. Les modèles rendent bien compte de la cyclicité du marché des bureaux, qui est largement tributaire de l'ajustement progressif du loyer à la vacance. En revanche le caractère spéculatif du marché des bureaux, particulièrement apparent au cours du dernier cycle de l'immobilier, est encore peu illustré parles modèles, car ces derniers ne retiennent pas dans le cas général le marché des actifs. Au total une modélisation conjointe du marché des services et du marché des actifs serait particulièrement souhaitable en immobilier de bureau, comme le montre du reste une analyse élémentaire de statique comparative.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1996.1438
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1438/ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1438.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 59 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 167-211

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1438

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1996.1438
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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