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An Analysis of Hotel Real Estate Market Dynamics

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    Abstract

    After providing a conceptual analysis of national hotel cycles, metro level hotel market dynamics are examined using various measures of supply and demand volatility, and historical revenue per available room (REVPAR) performance. Cluster analysis is used to provide a more rigorous classification of hotel markets in relatively homogeneous groups. A clustering algorithm is applied to REVPAR growth across fifty-eight metro areas. Using discriminant analysis, each cluster is then linked to various economic characteristics. Five hotel market clusters are identified with differences in various employment location quotients, employment SIC categories and employment growth largely determining the cluster groupings. This analysis can be used to improve hotel portfolio diversification strategies for both real estate investment trusts and direct-side equity investors.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol19n02/vo19n133_164.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 133-164

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:19:n:2:2000:p:133-164

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458.
    2. David J. Hartzell & David G. Shulma & Vice President, 1987. "Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95.
    3. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    4. David Hartzell & John Hekman & Mike Miles, 1986. "Diversification Categories in Investment Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 230-254.
    5. William N. Goetzmann & Susan M. Wachter, 1998. "Clustering Methods for Real Estate Portfolios," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm59, Yale School of Management.
    6. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
    7. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
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