The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market
Abstract
A review of the post WWII data on national office building construction and vacancy, reveals a recurrent ten-twelve year cycle. Specifying and estimating a structural econometric model for these series leads to several conclusions about this commercial real estate sector. First, the office market appears to "clear" quite slowly, and long-run expectations play an important role in market behavior. Second, supply is definitely more responsive to market conditions than demand. Finally, a six-year forecast suggests that the current over-supply in the market will not go away as fast as in the past. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.
Volume (Year): 15 (1987)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 281-299
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Donald A R George, 2011. "Stability of Growth Models with Generalised Lag Structures," ESE Discussion Papers 205, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Colwell, Peter F., 2002. "Tweaking the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 24-39, March.
- Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
- Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough & Ha-Chin Yi, 2008. "On Demand: Cross-Country Evidence From Commercial Real Estate Asset Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37.
- Timothy Riddiough & Paul Childs & Steven Ott, 2001. "Noise, Real Estate Markets, and Options on Real Assets: Applications," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-06, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011.
"Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
- E. Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 150, Bank for International Settlements.
- Deokho Cho & Seungryul Ma, 2006. "Dynamic Relationship between Housing Values and Interest Rates in the Korean Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 169-184, March.
- Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, January -.
- McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
- Charles Leung & Dandan Feng, 2005. "What Drives the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation? Evidence from a Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 241-255, September.
- Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
- Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.
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