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Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?

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  • Fintzen, David
  • Stekler, H. O.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 15 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 309-323

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:309-323

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

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  1. Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1996. "Is there a consensus among financial forecasters?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-464, December.
  2. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
  4. Rendigs Fels & C. Elton Hinshaw, 1968. "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fels68-1, July.
  5. Schnader, M. H. & Stekler, H. O., 1991. "Do consensus forecasts exist?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 165-170, August.
  6. George L. Perry & Charles L. Schultze, 1993. "Was This Recession Different? Are They All Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 145-212.
  7. Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-58, August.
  8. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  9. Stekler, H O, 1972. "An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 724-29, September.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  2. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
  3. Heilemann, Ullrich, 2002. "Increasing the transparency of macroeconometric forecasts: a report from the trenches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 85-105.
  4. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Prakash Loungani & Herman O. Stekler, 2011. "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 11/125, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  6. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  7. Herman O. Stekler & Raj M. Talwar, 2011. "Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  8. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
  9. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  10. Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.

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