Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?
AbstractForecasts from various experts are often used in macroeconomic forecasting models. Usually the focus is on the mean or median of the survey data. In the present study we adopt a different perspective on the survey data as we examine the predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The premise is that this variable could signal upcoming structural or temporal changes in an economic process or in the predictive power of the survey forecasts. In our empirical work, we examine a variety of macroeconomic variables, and we use different measurements for the degree of disagreement, together with measures for location of the survey data and autoregressive components. Forecasts from simple linear models and forecasts from Markov regime-switching models with constant and with time-varying transition probabilities are constructed in real-time and compared on forecast accuracy. We find that disagreement has predictive power indeed and that this variable can be used to improve forecasts when used in Markov regime-switching models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2010-53.
Date of creation: 22 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Markov regime-switching models; disagreement; expert forecasts; model forecasts; survey forecasts; time series;
Other versions of this item:
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2010. "Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-088/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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