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The (De-)Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • Laura Pagenhardt
  • Dieter Nautz
  • Till Strohsal
  • Strohsal

Abstract

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Pagenhardt & Dieter Nautz & Till Strohsal & Strohsal, 2015. "The (De-)Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-044
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchoring of Inflation Expectations; Break-Even Inflation Rates; News-Regressions; Multiple Structural Break Tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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