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Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature

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  • Webby, Richard
  • O'Connor, Marcus
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 91-118

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:91-118

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    References

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    1. Heejoon Kang, 1986. "Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 683-695, June.
    2. Thomas Cook & Paul Falchi & Reynaldo Mariano, 1984. "An Urban Allocation Model Combining Time Series and Analytic Hierarchical Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 198-208, February.
    3. Lobo, Gerald J., 1991. "Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-63, May.
    4. William Remus, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 533-542, May.
    5. Newbold, Paul & Zumwalt, J. Kenton & Kannan, Srinivasan, 1987. "Combining forecasts to improve earnings per share prediction : An examination of electric utilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 229-238.
    6. MacGregor, Donald & Lichtenstein, Sarah & Slovic, Paul, 1988. "Structuring knowledge retrieval: An analysis of decomposed quantitative judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 303-323, December.
    7. Desanctis, Gerardine & Jarvenpaa, Sirkka L., 1989. "Graphical presentation of accounting data for financial forecasting: An experimental investigation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 14(5-6), pages 509-525, October.
    8. Sanders, NR & Ritzman, LP, 1990. "Improving short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 365-373.
    9. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    10. Wood, Robert E., 1986. "Task complexity: Definition of the construct," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-82, February.
    11. Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
    12. Balzer, William K. & Sulsky, Lorne M. & Hammer, Leslie B. & Sumner, Kenneth E., 1992. "Task information, cognitive information, or functional validity information: Which components of cognitive feedback affect performance?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-54, October.
    13. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
    14. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    15. Willemain, Thomas R., 1989. "Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-185.
    16. Henry, Rebecca A. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1993. "Situational Factors Affecting Judgments of Future Performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 104-132, February.
    17. Francis X. Diebold, 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: reconciling two divergent literatures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
    19. Clemen, Robert T. & Guerard, John Jr., 1989. "Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 417-426.
    20. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    21. Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    22. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken, 1993. "Judgemental forecasting in times of change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-172, August.
    23. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    24. William Remus, 1987. "A Study of Graphical and Tabular Displays and Their Interaction with Environmental Complexity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1200-1204, September.
    25. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
    26. Brown, Lawrence D., 1988. "Comparing judgmental to extrapolative forecasts: It's time to ask why and when," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-173.
    27. Lance B. Kurke & Howard E. Aldrich, 1983. "Note---Mintzberg was Right!: A Replication and Extension of The Nature of Managerial Work," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 975-984, August.
    28. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    29. O'Connor, Marcus, 1989. "Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 159-169.
    30. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    31. Derek Bunn & George Wright, 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 501-518, May.
    32. Willemain, Thomas R., 1991. "The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, August.
    33. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    34. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1991. "Using belief networks to forecast oil prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 299-315, November.
    35. Makridakis, Spyros, 1988. "Metaforecasting : Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 467-491.
    36. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
    37. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    38. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
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    Cited by:
    1. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Matthew Amor & William Griffiths, 2003. "Modelling the Behaviour and Performance of Australian Football Tipsters," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 871, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C., 1997. "Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, December.
    4. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 947-955.
    5. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2000. "A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 151-160, April.
    6. Becker, Otwin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2007. "Heuristic modeling of expectation formation in a complex experimental information environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 975-985, January.
    7. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    8. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    9. de Bruijn, B. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2011. "Evaluating the Rationality of Managers' Sales Forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-36, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    10. Jorgensen, Magne, 2007. "Forecasting of software development work effort: Evidence on expert judgement and formal models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-462.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
    13. Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-53, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    15. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    17. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2010. "Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-088/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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