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Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature

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  • Leitner, Johannes
  • Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike
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    Abstract

    Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecasting behavior are interdisciplinary issues and have been subject to extensive empirical field and laboratory research. We here review the relevant experimental literature, demonstrate the significance of these results for decision science in general, and summarize the implications for practical forecasting applications.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 213 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 459-469

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:213:y:2011:i:3:p:459-469

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

    Related research

    Keywords: Experimental economics Heuristics Expectation formation Judgmental forecasting Adjustment of forecasts Revision of forecasts;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Bizer, Kilian, 2013. "Anchoring: A valid explanation for biased forecasts when rational predictions are easily accessible and well incentivized?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 166, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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