IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v14y1998i1p95-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Welch, Eric
  • Bretschneider, Stuart
  • Rohrbaugh, John

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-110, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:1:p:95-110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(97)00055-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Efraim Turban, 1972. "Technical Note—A Sample Survey of Operations-Research Activities at the Corporate Level," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 708-721, June.
    2. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
    3. Eggleton, Irc, 1982. "Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 68-102.
    4. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
    5. Lawrence, Michael & Makridakis, Spyros, 1989. "Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 172-187, April.
    6. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
    7. Arkes, Hal R. & Dawes, Robyn M. & Christensen, Caryn, 1986. "Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-110, February.
    8. Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William, 1994. "Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, June.
    9. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    10. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
    11. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    12. Sanders, Nada R. & Ritzman, Larry P., 1992. "Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 651-652, December.
    13. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    14. Bretschneider, Stuart & Gorr, Wilpen, 1992. "Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 457-466, March.
    15. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
    16. Willemain, Thomas R., 1991. "The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, August.
    17. Powell, Jack L., 1991. "An attempt at increasing decision rule use in a judgment task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 89-99, February.
    18. Robert Carbone & Allan Andersen & Yvan Corriveau & Paul Piat Corson, 1983. "Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 559-566, May.
    19. Ashton, Robert H., 1992. "Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 292-306, July.
    20. N. Castellan, 1973. "Comments on the “lens model” equation and the analysis of multiple-cue judgment tasks," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 38(1), pages 87-100, March.
    21. Sanders, NR, 1992. "Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 353-364, May.
    22. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    23. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
    24. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    25. Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
    26. Arkes, Hal R. & Christensen, Caryn & Lai, Cheryl & Blumer, Catherine, 1987. "Two methods of reducing overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 133-144, February.
    27. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
    28. Thomas Stewart, 1976. "Components of correlation and extensions of the lens model equation," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 101-120, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deschamps, Elaine, 2004. "The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 647-657.
    2. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    3. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, January.
    4. Contadini, Jose F., 2002. "Life Cycle Assessment of Fuel Cell Vehicles - Dealing with Uncertainties," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9gz1s67d, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
    6. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    2. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    3. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    4. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
    5. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    7. Harvey, Nigel & Harries, Clare, 2004. "Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 391-409.
    8. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
    9. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    10. Harvey, Nigel & Bolger, Fergus, 1996. "Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 119-137, March.
    11. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
    12. Han, Weiwei & Wang, Xun & Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Jing, 2019. "Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-9.
    13. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
    14. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    15. Lawrence, Michael & Sim, William, 1999. "Prototyping a financial DSS," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 445-450, August.
    16. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
    18. Wright, George & Lawrence, Michael J. & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "The role and validity of judgment in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, March.
    19. Deschamps, Elaine, 2004. "The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 647-657.
    20. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:1:p:95-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.