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Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

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  • Lawrence, Michael
  • Makridakis, Spyros
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WP2-4CYG399-GD/2/250f0fe3a98f7b4bad3e24137d9f5564
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

    Volume (Year): 43 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 172-187

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:43:y:1989:i:2:p:172-187

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/obhdp

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    Cited by:
    1. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
    2. Bloomfield, Robert & Hales, Jeffrey, 2002. "Predicting the next step of a random walk: experimental evidence of regime-shifting beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 397-414, September.
    3. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    4. Harvey, Nigel & Harries, Clare & Fischer, Ilan, 2000. "Using Advice and Assessing Its Quality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 252-273, March.
    5. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1998. "The impact of incentives on the accuracy of subjects in judgmental forecasting experiments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 515-522, December.
    6. Harvey, Nigel & Bolger, Fergus, 1996. "Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 119-137, March.
    7. Goodwin, Paul, 2005. "Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 388-402, June.
    8. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    9. Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2011. "Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1196-1214, October.
    10. Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2007. "The process of using a forecasting support system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 391-404.
    11. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Kenneth, 2001. "The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-633.
    12. Soyer, Emre & Hogarth, Robin M., 2012. "The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 695-711.
    13. Maines, Laureen A., 1996. "An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 223-233, June.
    14. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
    15. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1998. "The impact of information of unknown correctness on the judgmental forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-322, September.
    16. Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-110, March.
    17. Wright, George & Lawrence, Michael J. & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "The role and validity of judgment in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, March.

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