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Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information

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  • Lim, Joa Sang
  • O'Connor, Marcus

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  • Lim, Joa Sang & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-153, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:139-153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    2. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
    3. Ashton, Rh, 1981. "A Descriptive Study Of Information Evaluation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 42-61.
    4. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    5. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
    6. Sniezek, Janet A., 1986. "The role of variable labels in cue probability learning tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 141-161, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2018. "Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 163-180.
    2. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 261-275.
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Song, Haiyan & Gao, Bastian Z. & Lin, Vera S., 2013. "Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-310.
    5. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    6. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    7. Harvey, Nigel & Harries, Clare, 2004. "Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 391-409.
    8. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.
    9. Syntetos, Aris A. & Kholidasari, Inna & Naim, Mohamed M., 2016. "The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: In or out of context?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 853-863.
    10. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2000. "A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 151-160, April.
    11. Belvedere, Valeria & Goodwin, Paul, 2017. "The influence of product involvement and emotion on short-term product demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 652-661.
    12. Sanders, Nada R. & Manrodt, Karl B., 2003. "The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 511-522, December.
    13. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    14. Becker, Otwin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2007. "Heuristic modeling of expectation formation in a complex experimental information environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 975-985, January.
    15. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
    16. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    17. Otwin Becker & Johannes Leitner & Ulrike Leopold‐Wildburger, 2008. "Modeling Expectation Formation Involving Several Sources of Information," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 96-112, February.
    18. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    19. Bloomfield, Robert & Hales, Jeffrey, 2002. "Predicting the next step of a random walk: experimental evidence of regime-shifting beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 397-414, September.
    20. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep Sayım, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68.
    21. Alvarado-Valencia, Jorge & Barrero, Lope H. & Önkal, Dilek & Dennerlein, Jack T., 2017. "Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 298-313.
    22. F Caniato & M Kalchschmidt & S Ronchi, 2011. "Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 413-424, March.
    23. Otwin Becker & Johannes Leitner & Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger, 2008. "Modeling Expectation Formation Involving Several Sources of Information," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 96-112, February.
    24. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.

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