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Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods

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  • Robert Conroy

    (School of Business Administration, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514)

  • Robert Harris

    (School of Business Administration, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514)

Abstract

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper we examine empirically combinations of financial analysts' forecasts and forecasts from time series methods in order to predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time series methods based on annual data appear to occur over short forecast horizons (less than a year). Neither analysts nor other time series methods substantially outperform a random walk prediction of no change when forecasts are made near the beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits from combining time series and analysts' forecasts, especially if there are few analysts' forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:6:p:725-738
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.6.725
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salvatore Terregrossa, 2005. "On the efficacy of constraints on the linear combination forecast model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 19-28.
    2. Salvatore TERREGROSSA, 2010. "Accounting for Estimation Risk in CAPM-generated Forecasts of Firm Earnings Growth," EcoMod2004 330600139, EcoMod.
    3. Pieter T. Elgers & May H. Lo & Wenjuan Xie & Le Emily Xu, 2016. "A Contextual Evaluation of Composite Forecasts of Annual Earnings," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-40, September.
    4. Myoung Jong Kim & Ingoo Han & Kun Chang Lee, 2004. "Hybrid knowledge integration using the fuzzy genetic algorithm: prediction of the Korea stock price index," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 43-60, January.
    5. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    6. Dhami, Mandeep K. & Thomson, Mary E., 2012. "On the relevance of Cognitive Continuum Theory and quasirationality for understanding management judgment and decision making," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 316-326.
    7. Saravanan Kesavan & Vishal Gaur & Ananth Raman, 2010. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1519-1533, September.
    8. Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2010. "Anomali Overreaction di bursa efek Indonesia: Penelitian Saham LQ-45 [Overreaction Anomaly in Indonesia Stock Exchange: Case Study of LQ-45 Stocks]," MPRA Paper 36998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Brown, Philip & Clarke, Alex & How, Janice C. Y. & Lim, Kadir J. P., 2002. "Analysts' dividend forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 371-391, September.
    10. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1994. "Rational Expectations And The Dynamic Adjustment Of Security Analysts' Forecasts To New Information," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 387-401, September.
    11. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
    12. TERREGROSSA Salvatore, 2010. "On the Efficacy of Constraints on the Linear Combination Forecast Model," EcoMod2003 330700144, EcoMod.
    13. Aigbe Akhigbe & Ronald Kudla & Jeff Madura, 2005. "Why are some corporate earnings restatements more damaging?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 327-336.
    14. C. S. Agnes Cheng & K. C. Kenneth Chu & James Ohlson, 2020. "Analyst forecasts: sales and profit margins," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 54-83, March.
    15. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
    16. Andrea S Au, 2007. "Extracting information from European analyst forecasts," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(4), pages 228-237, November.
    17. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
    19. Abarbanell, Jeffery S. & Lanen, William N. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1995. "Analysts' forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 31-60, July.
    20. Almeida, José Elias Feres de & Dalmácio, Flávia Zóboli, 2015. "The Effects of Corporate Governance and Product Market Competition on Analysts' Forecasts: Evidence from the Brazilian Capital Market," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 316-339.
    21. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    22. Conroy, Robert M. & Harris, Robert S., 1995. "Analysts' earnings forecasts in Japan: Accuracy and sell-side optimism," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 393-408, December.
    23. Elkin Castaño Vélez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2000. "Metodos de combinacion de pronosticos: una aplicacion a la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 52, pages 113-165, Enero Jun.

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