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Metodos de combinacion de pronosticos: una aplicacion a la inflacion

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  • Elkin Castaño Vélez
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

Abstract

En este trabajo se presentan algunos métodos de combinación de pronósticos de diferentes modelos econométricos. Estas metodologías tienen como principal objetivo encontrar una combinación lineal de pronósticos de diferentes modelos que produzca una predicción mejorada en términos de precisión. Basados en estas técnicas se realizan dos ejercicios: en la primera aplicación se emplean estos métodos sobre quince modelos trimestrales de la inflación colombiana para pronósticos en el periodo comprendido entre 1992:I y 1998:II considerando horizontes desde uno hasta cuatro trimestres. Los resultados de este análisis muestran una mejoría significativa en las predicciones; en efecto, el pronóstico combinado comparado con los pronósticos del mejor de los modelos econométricos reporta ganancias en precisión (RMSE); en caso del horizonte de un trimestre es del 16.1%; para el horizonte que dos trimestres es del 42%; para el horizonte tres del 21.3% y del 12.8% para el horizonte de cuatro trimestres. La segunda aplicación de las metodologías de combinación de pronósticos se realiza utilizando un ejercicio de simulación, el cual se basa en modelos similares a los empleados en el primer ejercicio; los resultados obtenidos muestran que bajo técnicas adecuadas de combinación de pronósticos es posible obtener alrededor de un 50% y 35% de ganancia en precisión con respecto a los modelos individuales para horizontes de uno y cuatro trimestres, respectivamente.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía in its journal LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): 52 (Enero Junio)
Pages: 113-165

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Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2000:i:52:p:113-165

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Web page: http://economia.udea.edu.co
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Postal: Lecturas de Economía, Departamento de Economía, Calle 67, 53-108, Medellin 050010, Colombia.

Related research

Keywords: Pronosticos; Inflacion - Colombia; Modelos econometricos - Colombia; Proyecciones economicas;

References

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  1. Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E, 1985. "On the Accuracy of Time-Series, Interest Rate, and Survey Forecasts of Inflation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 377-98, October.
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