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Evaluating heterogeneous forecasts for vintages of macroeconomic variables

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  • Philip Hans Franses
  • Max Welz

Abstract

There are various reasons why professional forecasters may disagree in their quotes for macroeconomic variables. One reason is that they target at different vintages of the data. We propose a novel method to test forecast bias in case of such unobserved heterogeneity. The method is based on so‐called symbolic regression, where the variables of interest become interval variables. We associate the interval containing the vintages of data with the intervals of the forecasts. An illustration to 18 years of forecasts for annual US real GDP growth, given by the Consensus Economics forecasters, shows the relevance of the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Hans Franses & Max Welz, 2022. "Evaluating heterogeneous forecasts for vintages of macroeconomic variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 829-839, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:4:p:829-839
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2835
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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