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Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters

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  • Clements, Michael P

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these different types of forecasts do not hold for some idividuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2006/twerp_772.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 772.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:772

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Keywords: Rationality ; probability forecasts ; probability distributions;

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Cited by:
  1. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  2. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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