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Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters

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Author Info
Clements, Michael P (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

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Abstract

We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these different types of forecasts do not hold for some idividuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/papers/twerp_772.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 772.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:772

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Related research
Keywords: Rationality probability forecasts probability distributions

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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