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Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

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Author Info
Michael Clements

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Abstract

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 49-64
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:1:p:49-64

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Related research
Keywords: Density forecasts; Event probabilities; Encompassing; SPF inflation forecasts; C53;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  4. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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