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Diagnostic checks for integer-valued autoregressive models using expected residuals

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  • Yousung Park
  • Hee-Young Kim

Abstract

Integer-valued time series models make use of thinning operators for coherency in the nature of count data. However, the thinning operators make residuals unobservable and are the main difficulty in developing diagnostic tools for autocorrelated count data. In this regard, we introduce a new residual, which takes the form of predictive distribution functions, to assess probabilistic forecasts, and this new residual is supplemented by a modified usual residuals. Under integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models, the properties of these two residuals are investigated and used to evaluate the predictive performance and model adequacy of the INAR models. We compare our residuals with the existing residuals through simulation studies and apply our method to select an appropriate INAR model for an over-dispersed real data. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Yousung Park & Hee-Young Kim, 2012. "Diagnostic checks for integer-valued autoregressive models using expected residuals," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 951-970, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:53:y:2012:i:4:p:951-970
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-011-0399-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jentsch, Carsten & Weiß, Christian, 2017. "Bootstrapping INAR models," Working Papers 17-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. Manik Awale & N. Balakrishna & T. V. Ramanathan, 2019. "Testing the constancy of the thinning parameter in a random coefficient integer autoregressive model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 1515-1539, October.
    4. Masoomeh Forughi & Zohreh Shishebor & Atefeh Zamani, 2022. "Portmanteau tests for generalized integer-valued autoregressive time series models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1163-1185, August.

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