Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines
AbstractA number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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