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Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models

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  • Jose A. Lopez

Abstract

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models i.e., models of the time-varying distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial method, the interval forecast method and the distribution forecast method. These methods use hypothesis tests to examine whether the VaR forecasts in question exhibit properties characteristic of accurate VaR forecasts. However, given the low power often exhibited by these tests, these methods may often misclassify forecasts from inaccurate models as accurate. A new evaluation method that uses loss functions based on probability forecasts, is proposed. Simulation results indicate that this method is capable of differentiating between forecasts from accurate and inaccurate, alternative VaR models.

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  • Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:33
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Fiondella, Lance & Lin, Yi-Kuei & Pham, Hoang & Chang, Ping-Chen & Li, Chendong, 2017. "A confidence-based approach to reliability design considering correlated failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 102-114.
    5. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    6. L. Kourouma & Denis Dupré & G. Sanfilippo & O. Taramasco, 2011. "Extreme Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall during Financial Crisis," Post-Print halshs-00658495, HAL.
    7. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
    8. Mark R. Manfredo. & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk," Finance 9908002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    10. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456.
    11. Lima, Luiz Renato & Néri, Breno Pinheiro, 2007. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    12. José Santiago Fajardo Barbachan & Aquiles Rocha de Farias & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2008. "A Goodness-of-Fit Test with Focus on Conditional Value at Risk," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 6(2), pages 139-155.
    13. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
    14. William E. Nganje & Mounir Siaplay & Simeon Kaitibie & Emmanuel T. Acquah, 2006. "Predicting food safety losses in turkey processing and the economic incentives of hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) intervention," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 475-489.
    15. Aymen BEN REJEB & Ousama BEN SALHA & Jaleleddine BEN REJEB, 2012. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A Comparative Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 110-125.
    16. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Xiongwei Ju & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Using Value-at-Risk to Control Risk Taking: How Wrong Can you Be?," Finance 9810002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Manfredo, Mark R. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1999. "Measuring Market Risk Of The Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application Of Value-At-Risk Analysis," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21628, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March.
    20. Stephanos Papadamou & George Stephanides, 2004. "Evaluating the style-based risk model for equity mutual funds investing in Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 751-760.
    21. Glynn Tonsor & Ted Schroeder, 2011. "Multivariate forecasting of a commodity portfolio: application to cattle feeding margins and risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1329-1339.

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