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Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models

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Author Info
Jose A. Lopez

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Abstract

Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models i.e., models of the time-varying distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial method, the interval forecast method and the distribution forecast method. These methods use hypothesis tests to examine whether the VaR forecasts in question exhibit properties characteristic of accurate VaR forecasts. However, given the low power often exhibited by these tests, these methods may often misclassify forecasts from inaccurate models as accurate. A new evaluation method that uses loss functions based on probability forecasts, is proposed. Simulation results indicate that this method is capable of differentiating between forecasts from accurate and inaccurate, alternative VaR models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 33.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:33

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Related research
Keywords: Risk ; Bank capital ; Econometric models ; Forecasting;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of volatility models," Research Paper 9524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-35, April.
  5. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69. [Downloadable!]
  6. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 334-362.
  7. C. W.J. Granger & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1996. "A Decision Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  8. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Paul H. Kupiec & James M. O'Brien, 1995. "A pre-commitment approach to capital requirements for market risk," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 552-562.
  10. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1995. " Capital Requirements for Securities Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 821-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. J. S. Butler & Barry Schachter, 1996. "Improving Value-At-Risk Estimates By Combining Kernel Estimation With Historical Simulation," Finance 9605001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Paul H. Kupiec & James M. O'Brien, 1995. "A pre-commitment approach to capital requirements for market risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "A prolegomenon to future capital requirements," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  14. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  16. Granger, C. W. J. & White, Halbert & Kamstra, Mark, 1989. "Interval forecasting : An analysis based upon ARCH-quantile estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 87-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Darryll Hendricks & Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Bank capital requirements for market risk: the internal models approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456. [Downloadable!]
  3. Xiongwei Ju & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Using Value-at-Risk to Control Risk Taking: How Wrong Can you Be?," Finance 9810002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Manfredo, Mark R. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1999. "Measuring Market Risk Of The Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application Of Value-At-Risk Analysis," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21628, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Neri, Breno de Andrade Pinheiro, 2006. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 629, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Mark R. Manfredo. & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk," Finance 9908002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephanos Papadamou & George Stephanides, 2004. "Evaluating the style-based risk model for equity mutual funds investing in Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 751-760, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jose A. Lopez & Marc R. Saidenberg, 1999. "Evaluating credit risk models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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