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USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation

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Author Info
Sanders, Dwight R.
Manfredo, Mark R.
Abstract

One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification based measures which test the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) price forecasts are not optimal. Broiler price forecasts are biased, and all the forecast series tend to repeat errors. While the USDA forecasts are more accurate than those of a univariate AR(4) time-series model, evidence suggests the USDA live cattle forecasts could be improved with a composite forecast that includes a time-series alternative. Despite this, the USDA correctly identifies the direction of price change in at least 70% of its forecasts over the sample period. Furthermore, actual prices fall within the USDA's forecasted range 48% of the time for broilers, but only 35% for hogs. Finally, there is some evidence that the USDA's price forecasting accuracy has improved over time for broilers, but has gotten marginally worse for hogs.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2003)
Issue (Month): 02 (August)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31101

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Related research
Keywords: forecast efficiency; forecast evaluation; livestock prices; USDA forecasts; Livestock Production/Industries;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bailey, Deevon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2001. "The Value Of Usda Outlook Information: An Investigation Using Event Study Analysis," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18948, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  4. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  1. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37577, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
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