Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts
AbstractOne-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
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- Mamatzakis, E. & Remoundos, P., 2011. "Testing for adjustment costs and regime shifts in BRENT crude futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1000-1008, May.
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