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Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts

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  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.
  • Boris, Keith
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    Abstract

    One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 1192-1207

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:1192-1207

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    Cited by:
    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
    2. Mamatzakis, E. & Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A., 2014. "Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 567-575.
    3. Mamatzakis, E. & Remoundos, P., 2011. "Testing for adjustment costs and regime shifts in BRENT crude futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1000-1008, May.

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