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An Evaluation of Congressional Budget Office’s Baseline Projections of USDA Mandatory Farm and Nutrition Programs

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  • Kuethe, Todd H.
  • Regmi, Hari

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  • Kuethe, Todd H. & Regmi, Hari, 2023. "An Evaluation of Congressional Budget Office’s Baseline Projections of USDA Mandatory Farm and Nutrition Programs," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335690, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea22:335690
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/335690/files/25754.pdf
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    1. Kuethe, Todd H. & Bora, Siddhartha & Katchova, Ani, 2022. "Improving ERS's Net Cash Income Forecasts using USDA Baseline Projections," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
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    3. Jones, Jordan & Toossi, Saied & Hodges, Leslie, 2022. "The Food and Nutrition Assistance Landscape: Fiscal Year 2021 Annual Report," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Economic ), June.
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    5. Jones, Jordan W & Toossi, Saied & Hodges, Leslie, 2022. "The Food and Nutrition Assistance Landscape: Fiscal Year 2021 Annual Report," Economic Information Bulletin 327356, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Christopher S. McIntosh & Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1992. "Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 209-214.
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    8. Toossi, Saied & Jones, Jordan W & Hodges, Leslie, 2021. "The Food and Nutrition Assistance Landscape: Fiscal Year 2020 Annual Report," Economic Information Bulletin 327366, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    11. Jörg Breitung & Malte Knüppel, 2021. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 369-392, June.
    12. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1, March.
    13. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
    14. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    15. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    16. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    17. Michael T. Belongia, 1988. "Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-23.
    18. Mark S. Kamlet & David C. Mowery & Tsai-Tsu Su, 1987. "Whom do you trust? An analysis of executive and congressional economic forecasts," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 365-384.
    19. Coppess, Jonathan & Schnitkey, Gary & Paulson, Nick & Zulauf, Carl, 2018. "Reviewing the CBO Baseline for 2018 Farm Bill Debate," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 8, April.
    20. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
    21. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    22. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
    23. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    24. Schnitkey, Gary & Coppess, Jonathan & Paulson, Nick & Zulauf, Carl, 2017. "Reviewing CBO Baseline for Farm Bill Program Spending," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 7, March.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Agribusiness;
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