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Path Forecast Evaluation

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Massimiliano Marcellino

Abstract

A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the range of possible paths the predicted variable may follow for a given confidence level requires construction of simultaneous confidence regions that adjust for any covariance between the elements of the path forecast. This paper shows how to construct such regions with the joint predictive density and Scheffé’s (1953) S-method. In addition, the joint predictive density can be used to construct simple statistics to evaluate the local internal consistency of a forecasting exercise of a system of variables. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these simultaneous confidence regions provide approximately correct coverage in situations where traditional error bands, based on the collection of marginal predictive densities for each horizon, are vastly off mark. The paper showcases these methods with an application to the most recent monetary episode of interest rate hikes in the U.S. macroeconomy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2008/34.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2008/34

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Keywords: path forecast; simultaneous confidence region; error bands;

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References

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  1. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
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  7. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  10. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879 Elsevier.
  11. Garratt, Anthony & Kevin Lee & M Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 82, Royal Economic Society.
  12. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Working Papers 07-56, Bank of Canada.
  14. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Silvia Goncalves & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-641.
  16. �scar Jordà, 2009. "Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 629-647, August.
  17. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
  18. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D.S., 1991. "Estimating Orthogonal Impulse Responses via Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 487-496, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
  2. Helmut Luetkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," CESifo Working Paper Series 4634, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941.
  5. Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 456-468.
  6. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.

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